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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


462 
ABPZ20 KNHC 200514
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nineteen-E, located inland over the Mexican state of
Sonora.

An elongated area of low pressure located almost 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur before upper-level winds become unfavorable for development
over the weekend.  This disturbance is forecast to move slowly
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days well to
the south of the southern coast of Mexico.  Some slow development is
possible early next week while the system moves nearly parallel to
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Summary for Remnants of Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192018)
...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...
 As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 20
 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 28.1, -110.0
 with movement NNE at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Remnants of Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018  

050 
WTPZ34 KNHC 200831
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Nineteen-E Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 110.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United
States monitor the progress of the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E for the continued threat of heavy rainfall and flooding.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Nineteen-E were located
near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 110.0 West.  The remnants are
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h).  Moisture
associated with the remnants should move northeastward across
northwestern Mexico and into the southwestern and south-central
United States over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly over the Gulf of California.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The remnants of the depression are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of
Sonora and northern Sinaloa, and 2 to 4 inches in western Chihuahua.
Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in Sonora and
northern Sinaloa.  This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

Moisture associated with the remnants of the depression will also
lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding
in the southwestern United States today, and in the southern Plains
beginning on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.


$$
Forecaster Berg




Remnants of Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018  

515 
WTPZ24 KNHC 200831
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192018
0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 110.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 110.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 110.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG





Remnants of Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018  

126 
WTPZ44 KNHC 200832
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Nineteen-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018

A pair of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that the
center of the depression had moved inland over the Mexican state of
Sonora, with winds as high as 25 kt still occurring over the Gulf of
California.  The associated deep convection has taken on a more
linear pattern as it has pushed farther inland across northwestern
Mexico, and it is unlikely that the system still has a closed
surface circulation over the rough terrain.  As such, the depression
is deemed to have dissipated, and this is the last advisory on this
system.  Winds over the Gulf of California should quickly diminish
during the next 6-12 hours.

Moisture associated with the remnants of the depression will
continue to pose a heavy rainfall and flooding threat over the next
couple of days.  Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated
amounts up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora
and northern Sinaloa.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.  Heavy rains will also lead to a
heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States
today and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system.  For additional information please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.  For information
on the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding, please consult
statements from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 28.1N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg




Remnants of Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018                                              

026 
FOPZ14 KNHC 200831
PWSEP4
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192018               
0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25   
KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
 
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
 
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     



Remnants of Nineteen-E Graphics



5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Sep 2018 08:33:10 GMT

 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Sep 2018 09:20:33 GMT